I think that a direct war between NATO and Russia would ultimately lead to a nuclear holocaust. So, hopefully that never happens because we’re all going to die horribly in that scenario. However, the key point of the article is that western industry simply isn’t oriented towards this sort of war, so whether it unfolds within the territory of Ukraine or as a full on conflict between Russia and NATO, the advantage is on Russia’s side in the long run. NATO might make some initial breakthroughs, but it’s highly unlikely that NATO could outright defeat Russia quickly, if that doesn’t happen then it turns into a logistics game.
The other aspect that’s important to keep in mind is China. If Russia was somehow defeated by NATO, then China would be completely surrounded. This is an existential threat from China’s perspective, so China would be supporting Russia in terms of logistics and possibly even directly militarily if push comes to shove. China absolutely dwarfs the west in terms of industrial capacity, so in a war of attrition there is no path to victory for NATO.
I think that a direct war between NATO and Russia would ultimately lead to a nuclear holocaust. So, hopefully that never happens because we’re all going to die horribly in that scenario. However, the key point of the article is that western industry simply isn’t oriented towards this sort of war, so whether it unfolds within the territory of Ukraine or as a full on conflict between Russia and NATO, the advantage is on Russia’s side in the long run. NATO might make some initial breakthroughs, but it’s highly unlikely that NATO could outright defeat Russia quickly, if that doesn’t happen then it turns into a logistics game.
The other aspect that’s important to keep in mind is China. If Russia was somehow defeated by NATO, then China would be completely surrounded. This is an existential threat from China’s perspective, so China would be supporting Russia in terms of logistics and possibly even directly militarily if push comes to shove. China absolutely dwarfs the west in terms of industrial capacity, so in a war of attrition there is no path to victory for NATO.