I thought this is valuable because we seen Dems picking up seats despite the high inflation and this might provide the reasoning behind it
Very interesting. The conventional wisdom for dealing with inflation has been to raise interest rates, which has a knock on effect on, among other things, employment. Speaking solely of the government in my own country, they seem to believe that reducing inflation will restore trust in the government, but this data would seem to suggest that their attempts to reduce inflation may actually be eroding trust further because their methods result in increased unemployment. It’s certainly not the only misdiagnosis in their attempts to work out why nobody trusts them (breaking the law, giving so much public money to their mates, and almost weekly sexual misconduct scandals doesn’t exactly inspire trust, but they’re convinced it’s “not an issue for most voters”), but I can definitely see how this could be a contributing factor. We’ve seen the opposition parties picking up seats with genuinely record-breaking swings in the last couple of months, too.
Not to mention, we seen this play out historically in the US.
Inflation didn’t really affect Nixon or Reagan reelection, what mattered was the wars and jobs
When Volkner jacked up rates during Carter, it cause a massive spike in unemployment which is the main reason why Carter lost reelection